Dati aggiornati al | 2020-10-26 | 2020-10-25 | 2020-10-24 | 2020-10-23 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Casi | 8676056 (+0.8%, +65711) | 8610345 (+0.7%, +61177) | 8549168 (+1.0%, +84192) | 8464976 (+1.0%, +82123) |
Deceduti | 224054 (+0.2%, +473) | 223581 (+0.2%, +337) | 223244 (+0.4%, +910) | 222334 (+0.4%, +926) |
Positivi | 8452002 (+0.8%, +65238) | 8386764 (+0.7%, +60840) | 8325924 (+1.0%, +83282) | 8242642 (+1.0%, +81197) |
Il grafico successivo mostra il progredire dell'epidemia nelle differenti categorie di contagiati. La scala lineare permette una facile comparazione visiva dei valori, ma rende difficilmente intuibile un cambio di tendenza dell'epidemia. Il numero di Casi, anche se non espressamente presente, é rappresentato dalla somma di tutti gli altri valori visuallizati.
Il grafico successivo mostra il progredire dell'epidemia nel tempo con una scala logarimica. Con questa scala, una crescita esponenziale é rappresentata da una linea retta crescente. Le curve che progressivamente si abbassano hanno quindi una crescita meno che esponenziale.
Il grafico successivo mostra l'andamento dei Casi e la stima del suo andamento futuro utilizzando la curva del modello SIR che più si avvicina ai dati fino ad oggi disponibili. E' utilizzato lo strumento di calcolo fitVirusCOVID19 che stima un totale finale di contagiati di 0 (con una deviazione standard di 0).
Il grafico successivo mostra l'andamento dei NuoviCasi e la stima del suo andamento futuro con un termine dell'epidemia stimato al . Ulteriori stime le potete trovare nei risultati completi dello strumento di calcolo.
Il grafico successivo mostra la crescita del numero di Casi in base al numero di Casi stessi. Rispetto una rappresentazione temporale, é più facile notare un cambio di tendenza del progredire dell'epidemia, in quanto la velocità di diffusione dipende dal numero di casi e non dal tempo. Entrambi gli assi usano una scala logaritmica ed una crescita esponenziale é rappresentata da una linea retta crescente. Il rallentamento dell'epidemia si nota dalla curva che scende, ed il suo termine quando arriverà a zero.
Il grafico successivo mostra la variazione del numero di Positivi in base al numero di Positivi stessi. Come il grafico precedente, é più facile notare un cambio di tendenza del progredire dell'epidemia. L'uso del numero di Positivi invece che dei Casi é una migliore misura della capacità di diffusione dell'epidemia dato che i Guariti e Deceduti non sono da considerare contagiosi. Una crescita esponenziale é rappresentata da una linea retta orizzontale. Il rallentamendo dell'epidemia si nota dalla curva che scende ed inizia a tornare indietro, in quanto il numero di Positivi diminuisce.
DICHIARAZIONE DI NON RESPONSABILITA: Usate questi risultati con cautela. Il modello di calcolo potrebbe non funzionare in alcune situazioni. In particolare il modello può essere inadeguato, fallire nella fase iniziale dell'epidemia o quando si verificano ulteriori fasi epidemiche o focolai (casi non previsti dal modello SIR). I risultati sono forniti così come sono, senza qualsiasi garanzia espressa o implicita.
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